De Finetti Meets Ellsberg
نویسندگان
چکیده
The paper outlines an exchangeable non-Bayesian model of preference generalizing the Savage/de Finetti classic model of subjective expected utility preference with an exchangeable prior. The treatment is informal, and the emphasis is on motivation and potential applications rather than on axiomatic foundations and technical details. The objective is to provide a widely accessible introduction to research that is reported in detail elsewhere. Keywords: exchangeability; partial identi cation; ambiguity; multiple equilibria; maxmin expected utility; incomplete models; multiple likelihoods Boston University, [email protected] and Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, [email protected]. We gratefully acknowledge the nancial support of the National Science Foundation (awards SES-0917740, 0918248 and 1216339). Epstein is grateful also for the generous hospitality of CIRANO where some of this work was completed. This paper was written for the International Workshop in Economic Theory, CaFoscari University of Venice, June 28-29, 2013.
منابع مشابه
Ellsberg Meets Nash: the Ellsberg Task as a Game
In his PhD thesis, Ellsberg formulated strong experimental conditions for his proposed tests of subjective expected utility theory. Subjects should have no reason to consider the motives of the urn filler. Standard incentivized experiments do not meet these conditions. Instead of a one-person decision problem, the task can be perceived as a two-player game. One player chooses among the bets. Th...
متن کاملUncertainty and Compound Lotteries: Calibration1
The Ellsberg experiments provide an intuitive illustration that the Savage approach, which reduces subjective uncertainty to risk, is not rich enough to capture many decision makerspreferences. Recent experimental evidence suggests that decision makers reduce uncertainty to compound risk. This work presents a theoretical model of decision making in which preferences are de ned on both Savage s...
متن کاملA simple proof of Renner’s exponential de Finetti theorem
In quantum information theory a de Finetti theorem expresses the fact that a quantum state ρ ∈ (Cd)⊗n that is invariant under permutation of its n subsystems is close to a mixture of tensor product states. The first such result is due to de Finetti [3], who showed that any classical distribution that is infinitely exchangeable can be expressed as a convex combination of product distributions. M...
متن کاملA De Finetti Theorem for Capacities: Ambiguity about Correlation∗
The de Finetti Theorem on exchangeability is generalized to a framework where beliefs are represented by belief functions. This is done while extending the scope of the bridge provided by de Finetti between subjectivist and frequentist approaches. The model is shown to accommodate ambiguity about how experiments are “correlated.”
متن کاملFlexible constrained de Finetti reductions and applications
De Finetti theorems show how sufficiently exchangeable states are well-approximated by convex combinations of i.i.d. states. Recently, it was shown that in many quantum information applications a more relaxed de Finetti reduction (i.e. only a matrix inequality between the symmetric state and one of de Finetti form) is enough, and that it leads to more concise and elegant arguments. Here we show...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2013